FOMC

Economists are increasingly upbeat about the U.S. economy, with a growing consensus that the country is headed for what is known as a soft landing. In the latest quarterly survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, 65 economists have collectively lowered their recession probability forecast for...

Markets are eagerly awaiting September’s inflation data, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Thursday. The unexpected rise in September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) has heightened anticipation for the upcoming consumer inflation...

Price pressures on U.S. producers continue to rise, surpassing expectations. In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.5% month-on-month, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, slowing down from the more robust 0.7% increase observed in August, but...

Exacerbating Excess Treasury Supply There was a lot riding on the September employment report and the headline was shockingly strong. That said, the broadest measure of labor market demand, the aggregate hours index, increased 0.2% from August and for 3Q it increased at a 1.7% annualized rate. Thes...

Long-dated Treasuries are experiencing one of the worst bear markets in their history, with more than half of their market value wiped out by the ferocity of inflation and interest rates since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), often regarded as...

Following James Bullard‘s resignation in August, the former President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari, has assumed the position of spearheading the more hawkish members on the Federal Reserve’s board. Kashkari‘s recent statements clearly have revealed his robust...

The Forward Guidance Trap We did not expect a 50bp increase in the FOMC median policy forecast for ‘24 and ‘25, nor did we expect them to forecast tighter policy in ‘25 and ‘26 as measured by real policy rates from 2.3% at year-end (YE) ‘23 to 2.6% at YE24 and 2.7% at...

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Dot Plot Please click here for the Fed’s new dot plot. Note the following: We previously shared with you that the most important information ahead was the new dot plot. That call has proven spot on. The new dot plot...

Today, the stock market witnessed a mix of optimism and caution. The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the key overnight interest rate unchanged was the main news of the day. This move by the Federal Reserve is seen as a response to the ongoing economic challenges and uncertainties. On...

What Happened: Esteemed economist Mohamed El-Erian aired his apprehension regarding the Federal Reserve’s recent Federal Open Market Committee press conference on Tuesday. El-Erian frets that the economic and policy signals may be perceived as “confused and confusing” by many....

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index plunged to late August lows after the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates steady at 5.25%-5.5% but indicated the possibility of a further rate hike by the close of 2023 and removing a series of anticipated rate cuts (50 basis points) for 2024. Many analysts...

The Federal Reserve made a unanimous decision Wednesday to maintain the federal funds rate within the 5.25% to 5.5% range at its September meeting, a move widely anticipated by market observers. The spotlight of the day is firmly on the release of the updated Fed summary of economic projections...

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at its existing range of 5.25% to 5.5% during its September meeting, as largely predicted by the market. The Fed statement reiterated that additional policy firming to bring inflation to the 2% target may be appropriate depending on the...

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to reveal its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, market watchers and economists are speculating about the Federal Reserve’s next actions. What To Expect From The FOMC The consensus view is that the Fed is likely to maintain its...

On Tuesday, acclaimed economist Mohamed El-Erian highlighted a significant shift in the global economy, emphasizing an increasingly rigid supply side, contrasting the previous decade dominated by insufficient aggregate demand. What Happened: El-Erian responded to posts on X, formerly Twitter, by...